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Natural Gas Alert – WeatherInsight – April 12, 2010

April 12 2010, 12:20

Natural Gas Alert – WeatherInsight – April 12, 2010

Consensus: The 12Z model is revising its expectations for weather over the coming weeks.

(WI|FirstTrigger|Weather) AvgTemp: 12Z GFS, Day 9: 04/18, KLGA, 5 degrees F above previous 0Z GFS
(WI|FirstTrigger|Weather) AvgTemp: 12Z GFS, Day 9: 04/18, KLGA, 8 degrees F below 30-year avg
(WI|FirstTrigger|Weather) AvgTemp: 12Z GFS, Day 5: 04/17, KLGA, 4 degrees F above previous 0Z GFS
(WI|FirstTrigger|Weather) AvgTemp: 12Z GFS, Day 5: 04/17, KLGA, 7 degrees F below 30-year avg

About the alerts:

NOAA weather forecast models update during the day and night. The 12Z model updates daily at 11:30am.

WeatherInsight’s alerts are released when the 30-year departure temperature (East Coast NY LaGuardia) is more than 6 degrees F and the 12 hour change in the forecast is more than 4 degrees F. Their research has shown that during winter, when the natural gas market is in a “bullish” trend and the forecast is much below normal temperatures, historically there is a short-term rally 70-75% of the time. Similarly, in a “bearish” market and with a warmer forecast, the market comes off 70% of the time.

Courtesy: WeatherInsight

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