Natural Gas Alert – WeatherInsight – May 24, 2010
Consensus: The 12Z model is revising its expectations for weather over the coming weeks.
(WI|FirstTrigger|Weather) AvgTemp: 12Z GFS, Day 10: 05/31, KLGA, 14 degrees F below 30-year avg
(WI|FirstTrigger|Weather) AvgTemp: 12Z GFS, Day 11: 06/01, KLGA, 5 degrees F below previous 0Z GFS
(WI|FirstTrigger|Weather) AvgTemp: 12Z GFS, Day 11: 06/01, KLGA, 9 degrees F below 30-year avg
(WI|FirstTrigger|Weather) AvgTemp: 12Z GFS, Day 13: 06/03, KLGA, 4 degrees F below previous 0Z GFS
(WI|FirstTrigger|Weather) AvgTemp: 12Z GFS, Day 13: 06/03, KLGA, 14 degrees F below 30-year avg
(WI|FirstTrigger|Weather) AvgTemp: 12Z GFS, Day 5: 05/29, KLGA, 13 degrees F above previous 0Z GFS
(WI|FirstTrigger|Weather) AvgTemp: 12Z GFS, Day 5: 05/29, KLGA, 6 degrees F below 30-year avg
About the alerts:
NOAA weather forecast models update during the day and night. The 12Z model updates daily at 11:30am.
WeatherInsight’s alerts are released when the 30-year departure temperature (East Coast NY LaGuardia) is more than 6 degrees F and the 12 hour change in the forecast is more than 4 degrees F. Their research has shown that during winter, when the natural gas market is in a “bullish” trend and the forecast is much below normal temperatures, historically there is a short-term rally 70-75% of the time. Similarly, in a “bearish” market and with a warmer forecast, the market comes off 70% of the time.
Courtesy: WeatherInsight
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