Gas Petrospective – October 3, 2011
Natural gas prices were down 8.1 cents per million Btu on Friday, as traders reacted to burgeoning supplies and diminishing demand by pressing quotes to new 11-month lows. Prices are oversold and are on support lines – but both of these just keeping rolling lower each day. Prices are in a very well-defined channel headed lower and any rallies we get have trouble lasting for more than a day or two under the prevailing market dynamics.
The latest EIA underground storage figures say it best: Stocks are 91 bcf (-2.67% ) lower than a year ago, against a deficit of 129 bcf (-3.87%) a week ago, and a deficit of 140 bcf (-4.15%) two weeks ago. Against the five-year average, they are now 5 bcf higher (+0.15%), compared to 35 bcf lower (-1.08%) a week ago. Over the last couple of weeks, the deficit against a year ago has been pared and the deficit against the five-year average has been turned into a surplus.
As we start October, traders know that it typically takes at least four to eight weeks before any temperatures get cold enough to start increasing demand for natural gas as a space-heating fuel. And, as temperatures drop around the nation, the need for gas as a fuel for generation (to power air-conditioning units) steadily drops. Temperatures are already cool enough in the Northeast for air-conditioning units to have switched off, and these temperatures will be moving south over the next few weeks. By November, even Texans can typically throw open their windows.
The EIA reported last week that natural gas production in the lower 48 states has hit a new record high at the same time that Baker-Hughes reported an increase of 11 in the number of active US gas rigs (923). The bulls don’t have a leg to stand on.
Technical Recap
Natural Gas Options Report
Premium Subscribers (click here to register):
Volumes & Open Interest
End Of Day Straddles
Trade Blotter
Settlements
To view our energy news and articles on your PDA or mobile device, click here.
-----
About FMX: FMX Connect is an information, data, and analytics portal for Commodities. The portal provides an all-in-one package including essential market data, independent third party research, industry news, and commodity trading tools. FMX Connect provides efficient, effective, and thorough data that bridges all aspects of commodities onto one screen. The Result; A user friendly application for hedge fund traders, OTC brokers, individual investors, and industry participants.
-----
Note: The information presented, while from sources generally believed to be reliable, is not guaranteed and may not be complete. FMX | Connect makes no representations or warranties regarding the correctness of any opinions or information. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing in this report should be construed as a representation to buy or sell shares, futures or options, which contain considerable risks. For internal client distribution only. Any reproduction, re-transmission, or distribution of this report without permission is prohibited. Media correspondents or reporters may not quote any one page or section in its entirety and must attribute all quotes, ideas or concepts herein. Copyright FMX | Connect, ©2009-2010. All rights reserved.