FMX | Connect (Reported 10/27/2011)
The following is a report of Gold Option’s activity in the Over-The- Counter and Exchange traded venues. Information is compiled and summarized below.
Summary
December Gold settled at $1,747.70 per troy ounce, a gain of $24.20 for the day.
Market Recap:
Gold extended its gains on Thursday as part of a broader relief rally. Collectively, markets breathed a sigh of relief at the apparent progress out of Europe and as U.S. 3rd Quarter GDP grew by 2.5%. As part of the deal, the EU and IMF reportedly negotiated a 50 percent write-off with bankers on Greek debt; this number was chosen with the intention of reducing the Greek debt-to-GDP ratio to 120% by 2020 and staving off a default. Even viewed skeptically, some investors may take a measure of relief at the new levels of intervention the EU is prepared to take to stabilize the region.
December Gold rallied on Thursday, pushing to a new monthly high. Options activity was dynamic, with fresh buying continuing to come into the market. In particular, the December 1800 Call and April 1800/2000 Call Spread received a lot of attention. Volatility was offered on the higher move, and moved sharply lower on the temporary resolution out of Europe. On the day, call skew was higher and puts were offered.
Directional Commentary:
Options: Options behavior was somewhat bullish. Skew trended toward the calls, but volatility was heavily offered. All in all, options activity was bullish but we will want to see if the trend persists through next week. Conclusion: Bullish
Technical: Gold continued its rally on Thursday, extending past 1750 on the highs. The next upside objective is 1789, after which futures would face increased resistance. Slow stochastics are signaling that gold may be nearing overbought territory, which is consistent with the target. While we are bullish for the near-term a settlement below 1711 would likely signal the end of the rally, and a sell-off to the mid 1650s. Conclusion: Bullish
Active Options
Z 1800 C, Z 2000 C
J 1750 P
J 1800/2000 Call Spread
ATM Volatility Curve:
As of 1:30 P.M.
Volatility Smile:
***From NYMEX Settlement
End of Day Straddles
GC | | | |
| Future | Bid | Offer |
Z11 | 1750 | 89 | 93 |
F12 | 1750 | 144 | 148 |
G12 | 1750 | 181 | 185 |
H12 | 1750 | 211 | 215 |
J12 | 1750 | 243 | 247 |
K12 | 1755 | 269 | 273 |
M12 | 1755 | 293 | 297 |
N12 | 1755 | 319 | 323 |
Q12 | 1755 | 342 | 346 |
U12 | 1755 | 364 | 368 |
V12 | 1755 | 382 | 386 |
X12 | 1760 | 400 | 404 |
Z12 | 1760 | 419 | 423 |
As of 1:30 P.M.
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