FMX | Connect (Reported 11/04/2011)
The following is a report of Gold Option’s activity in the Over-The- Counter and Exchange traded venues. Information is compiled and summarized below.
Summary
December Gold settled at $1,756.10 per troy ounce, a loss of $9.00 for the day.
Market Recap:
Gold drifted lower on Friday, as investors booked profits and reduced risk ahead of the conclusion of the G20 meeting and unforeseen weekend events. Traders also noted some positive revisions to August and September payrolls, as well as a dip in the U.S. unemployment rate to 9%.
Gold trading was largely uneventful on Friday. ATM calls and straddles were offered. Not only were volumes low, gold traded only a $16.70 range. Volatility was down across the term structure, with December taking the worst of it, coming in 2.7%. One of the more interesting trades of the day was the purchase of the April 1800/1975/2300 Call Butterfly. This is a sophisticated directionally play, but still carries very large risks for investors. For one, a rapid move higher can make this position expensive to hold even if it finishes as a winner, because the buyer is short the volatility of the 1975 Calls.
Directional Commentary:
Options: Volatility was broadly lower, but put and call skew was largely unchanged. The trend in options this past week has been bullish, and nothing in today’s activity changes that. We should note the possibility of a volatility rebound on Monday, as many traders are biased to sell theta ahead of the weekend. Conclusion: Slightly Bullish
Technical: December gold finished down on the day but was mostly unchanged from a technical standpoint. Today’s low was 1749.90 and suggests there may be buying support at the 1750 strike. The market remains in a near-term bull trend, and we expect the rally to extend to 1789 before encountering increased resistance. Above 1800, bulls may try attempt to push the market back to all-time highs of 1923.40. The first objective to the downside is 1710, followed by the 20-day moving average at 1692.60. Conclusion: Somewhat Bullish
Active Options
Z 1850 C
G 1830 C
G 1700/1650 P. Spread
J 1800/1975/2300 Call Butterfly
ATM Volatility Curve:
As of 1:30 P.M.
Volatility Smile:
***From NYMEX Settlement
End of Day Straddles
GC | | | |
| Future | Bid | Offer |
Z11 | 1755 | 69 | 73 |
F12 | 1760 | 131 | 135 |
G12 | 1760 | 172 | 176 |
H12 | 1760 | 205 | 209 |
J12 | 1760 | 238 | 242 |
K12 | 1760 | 265 | 269 |
M12 | 1760 | 290 | 294 |
N12 | 1765 | 317 | 321 |
Q12 | 1765 | 339 | 343 |
U12 | 1765 | 362 | 366 |
V12 | 1765 | 380 | 384 |
X12 | 1765 | 400 | 404 |
Z12 | 1765 | 420 | 424 |
As of 1:30 P.M.
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