Morning Gold Fix – November 4, 2011
FMX | Connect – www.fmxconnect.com - (Reported 11/4/2011)
The following is a summary of yesterday’s US gold activity and a recap of Asia & European markets overnight. It includes our proprietary options analytics and news stories from industry professionals.
Summary December Gold settled at $1,765.10 per troy ounce on Thursday, a gain of $35.50 for the day..
December gold was down $11.1 to $1754.0 per 100 troy ounces as of 8:25 am EST this morning. The December U.S. dollar index was up 0.124 to $76.980. January platinum was down 12.3 to $1634.7 per 50 troy ounces. December silver was down 37.8 cents to 34.120.
Market Recap
Gold continued to rally on Thursday, bolstered by an EBC interest rate cut and rumors of Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou’s imminent resignation. Traders also noted an improvement
Gold trended higher on Thursday, and options trading reflected the heightened demand. Call buyers are loading up and ready to make the most of a continuing rally. One way this is notable is the increased number of long-dated options being purchased. One can see that back-month volatility has outperformed front months for the past two trading sessions (see our volatility curve farther down the page). Put skew also contracted significantly, indicating that volatility should perform in a rally again.
Market Prices
In the News
Bloomberg (Reported 11/4/2011)
Indian stocks gained, helping the benchmark index pare a weekly loss, as Greece moved closer to accepting a bailout and the European Central Bank cut interest rates, easing concern the region’s debt crisis may spread. Hero MotoCorp Ltd., which makes almost half the motorbikes sold in India, surged the most in two weeks. Hindalco Industries Ltd., the aluminum maker that controls Atlanta-based Novelis Inc., advanced 2.5 percent, leading a rally among peers. Global equities rose as Greece scrapped a referendum on Europe’s bailout package and after the ECB unexpectedly cut the benchmark rate 25 basis points to 1.25 percent. Indian Shares Gain, Paring Weekly Loss; Metal Stocks Lead Rally
Reuters (Reported 11/4/2011)
Gold fell on Friday after a rally in the euro ran out of steam, but the price was still on track for a second weekly rise, helped by investor demand in the face of political turmoil in Greece that threatened the future of the euro zone. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou faces a cliff-hanger vote of confidence in parliament later in the day after backtracking on his shock-call for a referendum on the country's international bailout package. Gold eases ahead of jobs as euro eases
Kitco (Reported 11/4/2011)
U.S. non-farm payrolls are expected to come in up 100,000 new workers during October, with the unemployment rate coming in at 9.1%. Any actual figure that significantly deviates from the non-farms jobs number is likely to significantly move the markets, including the precious metals. Comex Gold Slightly Lower on Profit Taking; U.S. Jobs Data Awaited
Technical Overview DEC GOLD
The market is short term and punch over last week’s high signals for a run to 177520* weekly resistance. A close over 177520* calls for a push into previous downturn levels associated with the 1789- 1808 area. If rallies are blunted against 177520*, be prepared for a near term slip for congestion at 1750- 1725. Only a close under 171490* marks a reversing turn to start a corrective phase with selloffs back to 1680-1670.
DEC SILVER
The market is remains in a short term bull upturn. A surge back over last week’s high or close over 3515 should spark a bull leg reaching for 3700. Trade may hang in additional sideways flagging congestion for 1-2 days. View sideways trade as a staging level to attempt further rallies. A close under 3273 could drive selling to again test key 32135* support, but only a close under 32135* marks a turn back to negative trade.
DEC COPPER
The market is showing a head and shoulders bottoming upturn and targets additional bull moves to 390-385. The past couple sideways days hints for a platform to push off for rallies. A close over 37640 will spark a run to 385-395. A close under 34635 signals for harder corrections, but a close under 33055* is needed to mark a turn back to sustained bearish trade.
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