goldstairs FMX | Connect (Reported 11/07/2011)

The following is a report of Gold Option’s activity in the Over-The- Counter and Exchange traded venues. Information is compiled and summarized below. 









Summary

December Gold settled at $1,791.10 per troy ounce, a gain of $35.00 for the day.


Market Recap:

Gold stretched higher on Monday, trailing just below $1,800 an ounce as we approach 5:00. Instability in Europe contributed to the metal’s gains, with Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi coming under fire amidst speculation that Italy could go the way of Greece and default without assistance from the ECB.

Volatility opened higher, rebounding from some of the selling pressure that is typical going into the weekend. Once again, speculative buying drove prices higher, both in futures and options. While the majority of the buying is limited to the front three months, longer-term investors are staying involved through December 2012. At-the-money options and calls both finished higher. Volatility was up nearly 1 percent on a tilt across the term structure.

 

Directional Commentary: 

Options: Volatility was bid, and fences moved violently toward the calls. There is no question about it, we are in a call skew market, and options are pricing in increased probabilities of a continuing rally. Overall, options sentiment is bullish. Conclusion: Bullish

Technical: Gold settled $35 higher, finishing the day at 1791.10 or just above the 1789 target we outlined last week. From here, we expect bulls to try for 1850 but would not be surprised to see a retracement before reaching that objective. Stochastics suggest that the market is overbought. Towards the downside there is support at 1750 and then near 1711. To reiterate, the near-term outlook is higher but don’t be surprised to see some profit-taking as gold pushes past the 1800 strike. Following a settlement above 1850, gold’s next target would be all-time highs of 1923.70. Conclusion: Somewhat Bullish 

 

image 

 

Active Options

Z 1800 C, Z 1850 C

H 1825 C

H 1775 P

J 1450 P

 

ATM Volatility Curve:

image

As of 1:30 P.M.

 

Volatility Smile:

image

***From NYMEX Settlement

 

End of Day Straddles

GC      
  Future Bid Offer
Z11 1790 70 74
F12 1795 134 138
G12 1795 178 182
H12 1795 213 217
J12 1795 246 250
K12 1795 275 279
M12 1795 301 305
N12 1800 328 332
Q12 1800 350 354
U12 1800 374 378
V12 1800 393 397
X12 1805 413 417
Z12 1805 433 437

As of 1:30 P.M. 

 

 

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