The oil complex declined sharply yesterday as the combination of overbought pressures, fundamental weakness and changes in equities helped push prices lower. Equities prices were lower after the resignation of GM’s CEO and the sudden prospect of bankruptcy, and traders took that weakness into their thinking. The weakness in equities allowed oil prices to react to factors that had been masked for the last week or so, as prices soared on macroeconomic factors. [More]

Oil prices ended the week on an easier note as traders collectively demanded some sign of fundamental strength before being willing to bid prices higher. Prices have reacted to a series of broader economic factors, starting with the Fed’s trillion-dollar injection almost two weeks ago. Last week also started with the Treasury Department’s toxic assets relief plan and continued with a revised fourth quarter GDP figure that was not as bad as had been predicted. But none of these burned a single hydrocarbon or pulled a single gallon from storage. [More]

Better than expected economic indicators helped push crude oil prices to their highest levels since November 28th. The figure that seems to have got the ball rolling was the Commerce Department report that GDP had fallen by 6.3% in the fourth quarter, rather than the 6.6% that was the average of estimates by analysts. This followed on the heels of reports earlier in the week that had shown better-than-expected reports on new and existing home sales and durable goods orders. [More]

The seasonal tendency for oil prices to reach a significant bottom in the first half of March is well-established. Over the last few years, we have seen less of a decline in February than in years gone by, but the seasonal tendency for strength still seems to be in place. It has worked in all but the most exceptional circumstances. In 2003, we had the invasion of Iraq, so it did not work. That was the one time it would have yielded certain losses in a quarter of a century. [More]

It was a much quieter day yesterday, and traders seem to have been trying to take everything on board. Crude oil spent most of the day trading on its back foot, but it managed to rally late in the session to close in positive territory. Refined products finished with moderate gains as traders tried to align themselves ahead of last night’s API report and this morning’s DOE report. [More]

Equities prices had their biggest one-day gain since October 28th, gaining 6.84%. It was certainly a strong day, adding hundreds of billions to the wealth of the nation with a move that took the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) up almost 500 points. The gain helped oil and natural gas prices to prolong their own advances, although neither was on a par with the movement in stock prices. [More]

Prices were lower in overnight trading on Thursday night into Friday morning. But, by midday, crude oil prices had clawed their way back to unchanged, with refined products moving into positive territory. Many were just trying to figure out whether commodities had entered a new phase of trading – or had returned to an old phase of trading. [More]

Oil markets received a sharp boost in trading overnight on Wednesday and into Thursday morning. By the time that traders reached their offices in New York and elsewhere in the US, the oil price had already changed, dramatically higher. [More]

The oil markets were lower overnight, in reaction to this week’s API report, and they remained in negative territory after yesterday morning’s DOE report. All three widely-followed inventory figures (crude, distillate & gasoline) were higher this week, and the distillate year-on-year surplus jumped by 2.3 million barrels while the gasoline year-on-year deficit dropped by 6.0 million barrels. The crude surplus fell 600,000 barrels. [More]

Crude oil prices broke and settled over the critical resistance at $48.55-$48.83, leaving only the resistance at $50.47 overhead as an impediment to a run higher. A break and settle above $50.50 would give us a swing objective to $68.54/bbl. Yesterday’s settlement over $59.00 was the highest settlement since December 1st, 2008. [More]