The oil complex advanced in the early trading on Friday, as traders reacted to the fourth quarter GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures. These showed growth of 5.7%, annualized, the largest growth rate seen since 2003. This figure helped oil prices, but it also boosted the US dollar, as traders saw the US as the strongest of its major trading partners (outside of China). [More]

Oil prices tried to advance yesterday, with buying in Asia overnight, reportedly in response to Wednesday night’s State of the Union and some of its more upbeat notes reinforcing the outlook for economic recovery. American traders were slightly less enthusiastic over the immediate prospects for recovery, and yesterday’s reports on unemployment and durable goods did not provide the market with the backbone of hope that Asian traders had read into the president’s speech [More]

This week’s DOE report showed a surprising build in distillate stocks (400,000 bbls), an in-line build in gasoline stocks (up 2.00 million bbls) and an unexpectedly large drawdown in crude oil stocks (down 3.900 million bbls). Crude oil imports dropped 673,000 bpd, to 7.867 million bpd, and that helped give us the large draw in crude oil stocks. On the other end, though, there was an unexpected increase in distillate imports, of 386,000 bpd, to the highest level in a long time (658,000 bpd). [More]

Oil prices were back down again yesterday, and gasoline prices (which had pulled quotes higher on Monday) were the weakest and ostensibly pulling prices lower yesterday. The markets were sluggish for most of yesterday’s session, and the salient or biggest feature on traders’ minds seems to have been the continuing likelihood of Chinese credit tightening. [More]

The oil complex finally turned higher yesterday, after three straight days of declines. The DJIA rallied almost 24 points, which helped to arrest the almost wholescale repudiation of risk seen at the end of trading last week. The US dollar was also slightly weaker yesterday and, while neither of these had trend-changing sessions, both had sessions that arrested moves lower in equities and higher in the dollar. [More]

Oil prices were lower, again, on Friday. It was the third day lower in a row, and markets seem to be telling us that the economy is in the middle of a dreaded double dip. The strongest economic indicator since March, the stock market, dropped by more than 200 points (216.90) for a second consecutive day, on Friday. [More]

Crude oil futures dropped $1.66 a barrel yesterday, touching their lowest levels since December 22nd. The dollar was relatively steady and equities plunged. And, in a surprising move, President Obama called for a limit on bank size and sought to impose a moratorium on banks holding hedge funds. What that really means, or how it might work in practice, remains to be seen. [More]

The US Dollar rallied to its highest level since August, 2009 – as problems in Europe combined with a general flight from risk and away from currencies – and commodities. China (somewhat) unexpectedly ordered the Bank of China to stop making new yuan-denominated loans. [More]

As we had feared would be the problem sooner or later, investors decided yesterday that risk was back on the menu, and they were buying commodities and equities again. Confusing things somewhat, though, was a strong advance in the US dollar against the euro. [More]

Continuing poor economic data gave us weak prices again on Friday, making it an almost perfectly bearish week. Almost everything that came out last week, from retail sales to unemployment to the CPI showed an economy that seems to have lost traction on the upside. [More]