The Commerce department reported a larger decline in GDP than had been forecast. The Energy Department reported a crude oil build of 4.1 million barrels and a distillate build of 1.8 million barrels. And the World Health Organization raised the flu epidemic warning to a five from a four on a six-point scale. So, all this was bearish, right? No, apparently, it was not. Traders were looking at equities prices, and the message that the economy is on a slow mend was the one that seems to have taken hold. [More]

Increasing fears over the spread of the swine flu that seems to have originated in Mexico gripped the headlines yesterday and continued to cast shadows over trading activities on exchanges around the world. Commentators agreed that the timing of this outbreak could not be worse, coming, as it does, in the midst of a global recession. It helped to keep energy bulls on the back foot yesterday, with buyers bidding beneath the market and trusting that sellers would reach down to fill their bids. [More]

Oil prices were lower yesterday as traders returned from the weekend to bearish rather than bullish news. We thought about covering it here on Sunday, but thought better of it, and it turns out we should have covered it. We are talking about the pandemic of swine flu that has closed down Mexico City and seems to have spread to the US, Canada and Spain. There were 40 confirmed cases in the US at 10 PM last night, with most of the cases in New York City. [More]

The oil complex was surprisingly higher on Friday, as traders reacted to higher equities prices (on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, or DJIA) and weaker US dollar values. There also seems to have been short-covering in front of the weekend, after a rather poor week fundamentally and on the charts. [More]

The oil complex was mixed yesterday, in what was this week’s version of attempted strength or recovery. And that tells us a story. It seems that prices still have some lingering remnant of seasonal strength left in them, but it has become such a hollowed husk of its former self that recent rallies have become anemic shadows of what we saw in March. A part of this complex still wants to go higher; the mind is willing, but the muscle and sinew are atrophied and sick. Once this complex realizes how sick it is, it will fall. [More]

This week’s DOE report followed the lead of the API – halfway. It showed unexpected builds in refined products stocks, the one area that had shown some bullish promise. It failed to show the drawdown in crude oil stocks that had been reported by the API on Tuesday night, but it was the unexpected weakness in products that seems to have caught the attention of oil traders yesterday. [More]

Equities, commodities, the euro, and the oil complex all staged rallies yesterday, in a strange session that was most memorable for its lack of follow-through on the downside, following Monday’s severe weakness. Traders interviewed by Dow Jones said that yesterday’s expiration of the May crude oil contract helped to amplify the strength in equities and helped to push oil futures higher. [More]

A sudden reappraisal of the US and world economies combined with expiration pressures on the soon-to-end May crude oil contract (goes off the board this afternoon) to pressure oil, commodities and equities prices substantially lower, yesterdays. The fact that the decline was so broad-based tells us that the May expiration, while important to oil traders, was not the major focus of yesterday’s trading. [More]

Oil prices were higher on both Thursday and Friday, and that cut into the losses seen last week. For the full five trading days, crude oil prices lost $1.91 a barrel, heating oil prices lost 0.63 cents a gallon, gasoline prices gained 1.17 cents a gallon and natural gas prices gained 11.9 cents/mmBtu. [More]

The oil complex finished with light gains yesterday, in a relatively quiet session. Most of the fundamental factors highlighted this week have been bearish, so it was certainly nothing fundamental that pushed quotes higher. Technically, prices are in trading-range consolidations, so there could have been some light technical pressure to advance, but it was not overwhelming. Seasonally, prices should still get stronger between now and the middle of May, so that might have helped. [More]