Prices for March 1st, 2010
| HEATING OIL cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | APR | 206.81 | 200.59 | 202.35 | dn 01.18 | | MAY | 207.88 | 201.78 | 203.48 | dn 01.40 | | JUN | 209.23 | 203.09 | 204.83 | dn 01.58 | | JUL | 210.50 | 205.01 | 206.62 | dn 01.69 | | AUG | 211.81 | 206.80 | 208.45 | dn 01.73 | | SEP | 214.25 | 209.25 | 210.40 | dn 01.79 | | OCT | 212.00 | 211.15 | 212.69 | dn 01.83 | | NOV | 219.05 | 213.68 | 215.01 | dn 01.86 | | DEC | 221.83 | 215.70 | 217.36 | dn 01.86 | | JAN | 223.48 | 218.85 | 219.66 | dn 01.91 | | FEB | 223.69 | 220.13 | 220.96 | dn 01.95 | | MAR | 223.64 | 221.40 | 219.81 | dn 01.95 | | Estimated Volume (day before) total all prev day 91,967 | | NYMEX CRUDE OIL dollars per barrel | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | APR | 80.62 | 78.06 | 78.70 | dn 00.96 | | MAY | 80.98 | 78.44 | 79.08 | dn 00.93 | | JUN | 81.30 | 78.84 | 79.48 | dn 00.89 | | JUL | 81.62 | 79.28 | 79.86 | dn 00.85 | | AUG | 81.80 | 79.56 | 80.18 | dn 00.83 | | SEP | 82.04 | 79.92 | 80.47 | dn 00.82 | | | | | | | | | Estimated Volume… 582,703 Opec Basket…$74.60 dn $0.06
Prompt #2 Oil NYH 88..-1.30 to -1.15, 74 Lo S…+2.25 to +2.50
US Gulf 88 grade…-4.50 to -4.00, 74 grade Lo S…+1.65 to +1.90 Group .........+0.00 to +1.00 Lo S.....+0.00 to +1.00
Chicago ......-1.50 to -0.50 cash quotes by Dow Jones | | | |
| NYMEX RBOB GASOLINE cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | APR | 221.77 | 213.72 | 215.56 | dn 03.23 | | MAY | 222.16 | 214.59 | 216.37 | dn 03.05 | | JUN | 221.76 | 214.61 | 216.37 | dn 02.95 | | JUL | 220.94 | 214.14 | 215.84 | dn 02.78 | | AUG | 219.65 | 213.50 | 215.14 | dn 02.62 | | SEP | 218.68 | 212.57 | 214.21 | dn 02.47 | | OCT | 208.60 | 203.55 | 204.04 | dn 02.24 | | NOV | 207.50 | 202.58 | 203.16 | dn 02.07 | | Estimated RB Volume day before 79,344 | | NYMEX NATURAL GAS dollars per mmBtu | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | APR | 4.869 | 4.660 | 4.679 | dn 0.134 | | MAY | 4.931 | 4.730 | 4.746 | dn 0.133 | | JUN | 5.008 | 4.820 | 4.827 | dn 0.132 | | JUL | 5.085 | 4.903 | 4.912 | dn 0.131 | | | Estimated Volume…day before (133,161)
Nymex statistics are based on composite Access & Day Sessions
Prompt Gasoline NYH M5 -9.75 to -9.25 RBOB -0.50 /+0.00
US Gulf M4: -13.00 to -12.25 RBOB -1.00 to -0.75
L.A. Conv Reg 220.00-221.00, N-grade Group 202.30-202.80 Chi 197.55-199.55 | |
Market Review for Monday
RUDE oil prices broke above last week’s important resistance level at $80.51, getting as high as $80.62, and it looked like the bulls had the momentum going their way. But, as happened all last week, prices could not sustain themselves above $80.00 and they sold off, ending the day in negative territory, below $79.00. Technically, yesterday was an extremely disappointing day for the longs.
Gasoline, now with April as the expiring contract, was over $2.20 yesterday in the early trading. According to Dow Jones, that looked extremely pricey to traders who had gone home on Friday with expiring gasoline trading beneath $2.08. Granted, this is now summer grade being traded. Nonetheless, it is still gasoline, and it takes time to internalize new numbers. The DJIA was up 78.53 points yesterday, which was supportive, but the dollar gained steadily through the session and it was just below &4.00 euro cents last night; major resistance is @ 74.15 euro cents.
| Fuel for Thought Russian President Dmitry Medvedov, after speaking with French President Nicholas Sarkozy, has indicated an increasing willingness to vote in favor of fresh sanctions against Iran. China, the nation with a thousand-year stare, countered this growing sense of impatience by repeating its mantra, “We believe there is still room for diplomatic efforts. We believe parties concerned should step up diplomatic efforts and push for progress in dialogue and negotiations to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue properly.” Mr Medvedev met in Paris with Mr Sarkozy and said that Russia is ready … to consider introducing sanctions” if no diplomatic breakthrough is imminent. It’s not on today’s menu and maybe not on Iran’s menu at all. |
The US dollar started off Monday morning under selling pressure, on continuing disappointment that prices had not broken the resistance at 74.15 euro cents (€0.7415) late last week. The dollar rallied into yesterday afternoon, and that helped take some of the starch out of oil prices.
Traders were also trying to integrate the latest figures on Opec production with the cartels’ scheduled meeting on March 17th. A Dow Jones survey showed Opec output up 110,000 bpd, to 26.895 million bpd, in February. Based on those numbers, Opec compliance with its own targeted cuts is down to 51%. It had been 82% compliance in March, a year ago. Traders see in these figures a de facto contentment or satisfaction with existing prices. As a result, it seems extremely unlikely that Opec ministers will propose or agree to any quota reductions when they gather in Vienna two weeks from tomorrow. Those who listen carefully to Saudi Arabian pronouncements believe that any Nymex price above $70 a barrel is acceptable to the kingdom.
It was warmer in the greater New York Metropolitan region yesterday than it has been in weeks or possibly months. That removed some urgency to buy.
Technicals
Crude oil prices were higher early yesterday, and they printed a new recent high at $80.62. They were unable to sustain those early gains, nor could they gain on them, and prices sold off on the failure, pulling refined products quotes back down, with them. Yesterday’s highs in gasoline and crude are critical levels to break from here.
Dollars per barrel
Above: Crude oil prices have failed to break over $80.51, with highs over $80.00 for six straight days.
April crude oil now has buy-stops over $80.62-$80.67, $82.35, $83.95, $84.83, $85.13, $89.82, $90.99, $93.02, $96.03, and $100.37. Sell-stops are under $78.00, $77.00, $76.30, $73.70, $72.60, $71.30, $70.75, $69.30, $68.55, $68.00, $65.80-$66.20, and $64.95. April heating oil has buy-stops over 206.81, 208.00, 209.15, 210.91, 211.90, 217.55, 222.72, 225.80, 227.05, 229.08, 238.95, 249.62, and 251.50. Sell stops are under 200.55, 199.00, 196.40, 190.75, 189.95, 187.45, 186.50, 182.63, 177.00, 176.68, 173.75, 171.10, 170.35, and 168.60. April RBOB has buy-stops over 221.77, 222.70, 228.86, 240.10, 250.40, 252.00, 265.10, 267.85, and 270.85. Sell-stops are under 213.70, 203.80, 202.25, 198.40, 191.85, 187.00, 184.15, 182.40, 181.20, 179.20, 177.30, 175.14, 171.40, and 170.25.
Football: The bears gained 10 yards on first down yesterday, giving them a fresh set of downs.
Technical Support & Resistance
Apr crude oil Support: $78.00-$78.10, $77.00-$77.20, $76.30-$76.60, $73.35-$73.50, $72.60-$72.75.
Resistance: $80.30-$80.51, $80.62-$80.67, $82.20-$82.35, $83.85-$83.95, $84.75-$84.85.
Apr heating oil Support: 200.55-200.70, 199.00-199.15, 197.95-198.05, 196.40-196.55, 190.75-190.90.
Resistance: 206.70-206.81, 207.85-208.00, 209.00-209.15, 210.80-210.91, 211.80-211.90.
Apr Rbob Support: 213.70-213.85, 203.50-203.80, 202.25-202.40, 198.40-198.60, 191.85-192.00.
Resistance: 221.65-221.77, 222.60-222.70, 228.75-228.86, 239.95-240.10, 250.25-250.40.
Oil Inventory Reports
This week’s DOE report has had six of eight years showing draws in both refined products – curiously close – of 1.933 and 1.966 million bbls for distillate and gasoline, respectively (over the six years of draws). Utilization has been higher in four years and lower in the other four years. Crude oil imports have fallen in four years out of the last six. We still have a solid four to eight weeks of turnarounds left, but refiners do seem to have rotated units in and out of service, with the ‘luxury’ of so much spare capacity. As a result, utilization has not dropped as much – although it is extremely low to begin with.
Last Week’s Inventory Comparison: Distillate stocks are now 7.5 million bbls, or 5.17%, higher than a year ago. Heating oil inventories are 5.8 mln bbls, or 15.72%, higher than they were a year ago. Gasoline stocks are 14.8 mln bbls (up 6.84%) higher against a year ago. Crude oil stocks are now 16.7 million bbls, or 4.71%, lower than a year ago. Residual stocks are 2.2 mln bbls (5.82%) higher than a year ago, jet fuel stocks are 1.7 mln bbls, (4.05%) higher than a year ago. Utilization is 0.23% lower than a year ago and 5.33% below the eight-year average. It is 7.50% lower than the four-year, pre-Katrina average and 3.15% below the average of the four years since the big hurricanes (Katrina & Rita) in 2005.
Last Week’s Demand: Four-week, total refined products demand came in at 19.095 million bpd, up 0.100 mln bbls on the week, and up 0.239 mln bpd and 1.27% against a year ago. Two weeks ago, it was 0.159 mln bpd and 0.83% lower than a year ago. Four-week gasoline demand is at 8.741 mln bpd, down 0.34%, compared to up 0.32% seven weeks ago. It was up 111,000 bpd on the week. Four-week distillate demand is now at 3.701 mln bpd, down 6.82%, compared to down 0.98% seven weeks ago. Four-week jet demand is now at 1.321 mln bpd, down 1.93% against a year ago, compared to up 8.17% seven weeks ago. Four-week residual fuel demand is at 0.602 mln bpd, up 4.70%, compared to down 34.14% three weeks ago. Propane use is up 9.10%, to 1.462 mln bpd. Gasoline supply increased by 572,000 bpd this week, while demand was up 543,000 bpd on the week.
Last Week’s API Report: This week’s API report showed a draw of 3.137 mln bbls in crude oil stocks, a draw of 0.834 mln bbls in distillate stocks and a build of 1.738 mln bbls in gasoline inventories. Utilization was up 0.9% to 80.8%. Implied demand came in at a healthy 9.310 mln bpd in gasoline and at a decent 4.306 mln bpd in distillate. Crude oil imports were up 1.153 mln bpd to 9.192 mln bpd. Both implied demand figures improved from really dreadful levels reported last week, and imported more crude oil and seemed interested in refining more, as well.
DOE Weekly Inventory Statistics
| Category | Final DOE Estimate
This Week’s Estimate | History
Last Year’s Report | Most Recent Changes
Last Week’s DOE Report | Versus A Year Ago
Millions of Barrels |
| Distillate | dn 1.50 to 2.00 mln bbls | up 1.662 | dn 0.591 mln bbls | up 7.500 |
| Gasoline | dn 0.50 to 1.00 | up 0.168 | dn 0.895 | up 14.800 |
| Crude oil | up 1.75 to 2.75 | dn 0.757 | up 3.034 | dn 16.700 |
| Utilization | dn 0.0% to 0.5% | up 1.7% at 83.1% | up 1.42% at 81.17% | |
| Crude Imports | dn 0.000 to 0.500 mmbd | up 0.259 to 9.028 | up 0.536 to 9.084 mln bpd | |
| DOE Distillate Demand | 3.662 mln bpd | dn 125,000 | Gasoline Demand | 9.064 mln bpd | up 543,000 |
| DOE Distillate Production | 3.591 mln bpd | up 158,000 | Gasoline Production | 8.863 mln bpd | up 435,000 |
| DOE Distillate Imports | 0.444 mln bpd | up 053,000 | Gasoline Imports | 0.846 mln bpd | up 137,000 |
Source: US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration
Open Interest Analysis
Crude oil open interest fell by 10,917 contracts on Friday, when prices were higher. That looks like heavy short-covering and would be bearish. Open interest has fallen by more than 22,000 contracts over the last two days.
Heating oil open interest fell by 1,447 contracts on Friday, when prices were higher. That looks like short-covering and is bearish.
RBOB open interest grew by 765 contracts on Friday, when prices were higher, which would be fresh buying.
Natural gas open interest grew by 14,640 on Friday, when prices were higher. This time, it looks like good, new buying, and would be supportive.
Friday’s Open Interest Changes:
Crude 1,274,007 dn 10,917 Heat 298,211 dn 1,447 RBOB 262,348 up 765 Nat gas 816,140 up 14,640
CFTC Commitments of Traders for Nymex (for the period ended Tuesday, Feb 2nd)
Crude oil prices rallied $1.44/bbl over the latest reporting period, and the best buying came from Managed Money accounts. They bought 14,963 new longs and added 2,900 shorts. Producers liquidated 16,027 longs but also covered 14,302 shorts. Other Reportables also covered 8,096 shorts, while liquidating 3,243 longs. Swap Dealers liquidated 16,820 longs and added 7,358 new shorts and were the only pure sellers. Managed Money accounts were the best new buyers, but short-covering by Producers and Other Reportables, doubtless leading into the March crude contract expiration, also boosted prices.
In heating oil futures, prices rallied 3.60 cents a gallon, and the best net buying came from Managed Money accounts, which added 10,901 new longs and covered 5,938 shorts. The other categories sold into strength, with Producers liquidating 3,741 longs and adding 10,900 shorts, Swap Dealers liquidating 4,838 longs and covering just 6 shorts, and Other Reportables liquidating 3,389 longs and adding 1,411 shorts. Managed Money was the motive force behind higher prices.
Gasoline prices gained 7.74 cents a gallon during the period under review. Managed Money accounts added 13,745 new longs and covered 2,425 shorts, while Other Reportables added 208 new longs and covered 89 shorts. Producers liquidated 6,016 longs and added 9,891 new shorts into the rise, while Swap Dealers liquidated 2,319 longs and added 593 new shorts. Funds were the biggest buyers, with commission houses buying very lightly. Producers were the best sellers.
In natural gas, prices dropped 53.2 cents during the period under review. Here, it was cut and dried; Managed Money sold 19,855 new shorts and liquidated 7,655 longs (short 3-to-one). Other Reportables added 6,111 longs and covered 9,400 shorts, Producers added 2,851 longs and covered 2,900 shorts and Swap Dealers added 2,409 longs and covered 3,041 shorts. Everyone sees a bargain, here, except the funds pressing quotes lower. They were the best and only sellers.
Natural Gas & Utility Generation
Natural gas prices plunged through last week’s support, touching off sell-stops as they fell. There was heavy fund selling, again, and there was decent selling by locals (floor traders on their own hooks) and by commission house longs liquidating on stop-loss orders. Producers appear to have been the best buying, with swap dealers also buying.
Traders seem to have incorporated Friday’s latest Baker-Hughes report, which showed another increase in the number of active rigs, to 905 rigs. Dow Jones noted yesterday that the rig count has increased by 19% over the last “few months.” The peak of 1,606, reached in September, 2008, is looking increasingly irrelevant, as each rig entering service today seems capable of extracting so much more natural gas from previously difficult-to-exploit shale formations.
One of the biggest natural gas stories in 2009 was the ability of rigs to bring out large supplies of hitherto ‘trapped’ gas from shale formations. The state of technology is such that these formations, once almost impossible to reach, have become the most easily – and most quickly – exploited sources of natural gas over the last year or so. The output-to-rig ratio has climbed dramatically, making the 1600 rigs in service 18 months ago an unneeded luxury in the current environment. The addition of eight or a dozen rigs now seems capable of tipping supplies to new heights. This has become a dominant factor in the market.
At the same time, one or more large investment bank-sponsored fund has or have taken on massive short speculative “investments” on the short side in natural gas. We are not sure what these short holdings are offsetting, but some days it seems that every long commodity position from gold to euros to oil has been spread against a short natural gas component. This makes no sense to us. The other commodities advance on dollar weakness, equity strength, promises to hold interest rates at low levels and every positive minor economic statistic suggesting an ongoing recovery. Of course, demand for electricity will increase before demand for gasoline, as companies with increasing business will keep employees working longer at their offices before they hire new people to drive in to work … but the spread is on … and the fund selling is actively pressing natural gas prices below fundamentally-justified levels.
In cash trading yesterday, Henry Hub prices were at $4.78-$4.92, up $0.04-$0.06 on the day (DJN). SoCal prices were at $4.87-$4.94, up $0.00-$0.04 on the day. El Paso Permian prices were down $0.02 and up $0.09 at $4.71-$4.78. Katy prices were up $0.05 and down $0.03 to $4.77-$4.86. Waha prices were up $0.07-$0.09 at $4.74-$4.84. Transco 6 was up $0.07-$0.10 to $5.32-$5.42/mmBtu, according to Dow Jones News (DJN).
Palo Verde prices were last quoted at $42.75-$44.75/mwh. Northeastern prices last traded at $44.00-$45.75. Cinergy was last at $39.75-$40.50. Ercot was last at $41.25-$42.75/mwh.
Support is at $4.64-$4.66, $4.40-$4.43, $4.15-$4.17, $4.05-$4.08, $3.73-$3.75, $3.66-$3.68, $3.50-$3.53, $3.44-$3.46, $3.28-$3.32, $2.91-$2.93, $2.80-$2.82, $2.74-$2.75, and $2.69-$2.70. Resistance is at $4.86-$4.89, $4.97-$5.00, $5.16-$5.17, $5.46-$5.47, $5.55-$5.60, $5.87-$5.90, $5.99-$6.03, $6.09-$6.11, $6.15-$6.17, $6.34-$6.37, $6.65-$6.69, $6.90-$6.94, $7.01-$7.04, $7.28-$7.31, and $7.34-$7.36.
Apr Natural Gas: Support : $4.64-$4.66, $4.40-$4.43, $4.15-$4.17, $4.05-$4.08, $3.73-$3.75, $3.66-$3.68.
Resistance: $4.86-$4.89, $4.97-$5.00, $5.16-$5.17, $5.46-$5.47, $5.55-$5.60, $5.71-$5.73.
Natural gas prices broke to new recent lows yesterday..
Dollars per million Btu
The crude-to-gas ratio continues to increase. Some big money is selling gas against other long holdings.
Ratio
EIA Weekly Storage Figures
Last week’s EIA report showed a draw of 172 bcf on expectations for a draw of 169-170 bcf. Stocks are now 56 bcf lower than a year ago, against a surplus of 26 bcf a week ago, a surplus of 172 bcf two weeks ago and a surplus of 199 bcf three weeks ago. Stocks are now 2.93% lower than a year ago. They are 13 bcf and 0.71% above the five-year average.
For this week, the eight-year average (of similar Friday reports) was a draw of 112.38 bcf. The five-year average was a draw of 112.67 bcf. Last year’s draw was 102 bcf.
EIA Report
| Region | 02-19-10 | 02-12-10 | Change | Last Year | 5 Yr Avg |
| Cons East | 935 | 1030 | dn 95 | 886 | 958 |
| Cons West | 311 | 322 | dn 11 | 298 | 255 |
| Producing | 607 | 673 | dn 66 | 725 | 627 |
| Total US | 1853 | 2025 | dn 172 | 1909 | 1840 |
Bcf, or Billions of cubic feet. Source: Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy
News & Views
| In trading on Nymex, April crude oil prices were up $0.61 at $79.31/barrel at 8.30 AM EST, this morning. April heating oil prices were up 1.91 cents to 2.0426/gallon. April RBOB prices were up 2.51 cents to 2.1807. April natural gas prices were up $0.015 to $4.694/mmBtu. Oil prices were steady in early morning trading in Asia, ahead of this week’s reports. Stronger equities gave oil markets support, while a stronger US dollar kept buying from getting aggressive. DOE Expectations The table below lists the first survey results for Dow Jones, Bloomberg and Reuters. The DOE report will be released at 10:30 EST on Wednesday morning this week. Category Dow Jones Bloomberg Reuters Crude up 0.700 up 1.500 up 1.300 mln bbls Distillate dn 0.300 dn 0.500 dn 0.600 Gasoline up 0.600 up 0.000 up 0.400 Utilization unchanged unchanged unchanged 
Crude oil prices were higher yesterday early on, but they failed to follow through on a break to new recent highs and ended the day in negative territory. There is resistance from $80,00-$80.62. | 
Heating oil prices tried moving higher yesterday morning, but they could not generate enough upside momentum to sustain the advance and they finished in negative territory. DOE History: Distillate stocks have fallen in six of the last eight years, by an average of 1.933 mln bbls. The eight-year average is a draw of 1.067 mln bbls. Gasoline stocks fell in six of the last eight years, for a six-year draw of 1.966 mln bbls and an eight-year average draw of 1.242 mln bbls. Crude oil stocks have been higher in five of the last eight years for a five-year average build of 3.940 mln bbls and it has an eight-year average build of 1.380 mln bbls. Utilization has been lower in four of the last eight years and has an eight-year average decline of 0.33%, with an eight-year average utilization figure of 86.66%. The four-year, pre-hurricane utilization average was 88.33%. Since Katrina, refineries have run at an average utilization rate of 85.00%. Crude oil imports have been lower in four of the last six years, and the average crude oil import figure over the last six years has been down 199,000 bpd. The average crude oil import figure over the last six years has been 9.562 million bpd. Imports were nearly half a million bpd below that average in last week’s report. Over the last few weeks, imports have been slowly recovering from the deepest discounts (to previous years) ever seen. |
| Crude prices have resistance up to $80.62. | |
If one had offered natural gas traders the existing storage comparisons (against last year and the five-year average) back on November 1st, they would have jumped on it. Prices are falling because of heavy fund selling, but even producers are buying it here. Something is afoot; it could be an attempt to infiltrate gas in place of heating oil or a big spread play.
An Illustrated Look at Energy Market Factors
A Look at the US Dollar Versus the Euro
Dollar-Euro (dollar in euro cents): Three-Month Bar-Chart 
The US dollar rallied yesterday and it is back near 74.00 euro cents, with crucial resistance at the 74.15 area. A decisive break and finish above that level would be bullish for the greenback. Oil weakened as the dollar rallied yesterday.
http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forexqkchart&curcode1=USD&curcode2=EUR
A Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (djia)
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Six-Month Chart
The DJIA ended with gains of 78.53 points yesterday, and this strength was initially supportive in oil markets.
The DJIA looks poised to take out last week’s highs.
Source: http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?symb=djia&sid=1643&time=6mo&Submit1=Refresh
A Look at Selected Spreads
The switch in the front-month gasoline contract has pushed crack spreads to their highest levels since the end of August, 2009. Crack spreads often improve in the spring.
The gasoline crack spread reached its highest level since late August, 2009. It finished yesterday at $11.84/bbl.
Recommendations for Specific Market Segments
Heating Oil Distributors Heating oil prices sold off yesterday, after making an initial attempt to move higher. Prices ended the day with minor losses, after the dollar rallied into the afternoon. Traders are likely to focus on the outlook for this week’s supply & demand statistics, starting with this evening’s API figures. Expectations, if realized, would be somewhat bearish for refined products, which have traditionally had larger draws than expected this week, but would be somewhat supportive for crude oil, which has had larger builds than expected. As far as the seasonal is concerned, we would use this decline to get our feet in the door, especially if one has nothing yet. We like buying into weakness when we see it in the first two weeks of March. We are happier buying caps and calls than futures, but one can buy futures if stop-loss orders are employed to prevent any potential catastrophic loss. Still, we like buying into weakness, here. Diesel Users We would hold our caps and will be buying into dips from here. NYH Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…208.60-209.10 plus 6.500 USG Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…204.10-204.60 plus 2.000 Jet/Kerosene Users & Airlines New York Harbor cash market differentials were 4.50 to 5.25 cents over January heating oil in NY Harbor and 2.25 to 2.75 over the screen in the US Gulf. Diesel & Gasoline Marketers We would keep product hedged, but we may have opportunities here. Gasoline Blenders & End-Users We want to be buying caps, calls or futures on dips from here. Prompt NYH Fuel Ethanol…..180.00-183.00 Prompt USG Fuel Ethanol….170.00-173.00 Quotes from 03-01-10 Heating Oil End-Users We want to use this initial dip to get our foot in the door on the long side. Speculators We will be looking to buy calls here, and on any additional weakness between now and March 15th, increasing our positions the nearer we get to March. Refiners The 7:5+2 crack spread was $10.25 yesterday. Crude Oil Producers Crude oil prices were lower yesterday, and crack spreads are already improving. We like buying products against crude during this period. | Prompt Jet Fuel Prices New York Harbor 206.85-207.60 US Gulf 204.60-205.10 Midwest (Group Three) 204.85-206.85 Midwest (Chicago) 204.35-206.85 Los Angeles 207.00-208.00 San Francisco 207.00-208.00 Portland, Oregon 207.00-208.00 Cents per gallon Propane Prices Mont Belvieu……….…..non-TET………$1.181870 Cents per gallon  Gasoline prices gapped higher and broke above resistance all the way up to 219.27, taking out resistance at 212.75 with the switch from the March to April contracts. Prices were not able to hold on to their best gains, and they finished well below 219.27, but they did settle over 212.75.
We like buying into weakness, and would have bought our first contract yesterday at 214.60, basis June. The seasonal tendency has started. |